The U.S. dollar continued to underperform following the release of employment numbers.

OFX Daily Market News

Posted by OFX

USD – United States Dollar

The U.S. employment report for April was negative, as anticipated, and employers cut 20.5 million jobs in the month. The non-farm payrolls number came in better than expected at -20.5 million jobs, versus the expected number of -22 million. However, the pandemic has forced businesses to close and has kept Americans at home. At the same time, the employment rate came in at 14.7 percent, the highest since just after the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The U.S. dollar index has fallen 0.22 percent and reached a one-week low. There are expectations that the Fed will continue to do whatever it takes, while U.S. Treasury 2-year and 5-year yields fell to record lows as the futures market continued to price in more negative rates in 2021.

Regarding the U.S.-China spat, White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow said, “China continues to tell us that they have every intention,” of meeting the requirements and implementations of the deal. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer had a “very constructive” meeting yesterday, Kudlow said.

Key Movers

The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose for a second day as sentiment has improved due to a fresh commitment by the U.S. and China to implement the phase one trade deal. The RBA said in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, “In Australia, output is expected to contract significantly over the first half of 2020, mostly in the June quarter … While the exact size of the contraction is still uncertain, a decline in GDP of around 10 percent from peak to trough is expected.”

The Swiss National Bank, which has amassed vast holdings of foreign currency due to interventions to weaken the Swiss Franc, had $94 billion invested in U.S. stocks at the end of March, according to its regulatory filing.

Expected Ranges

USD/CAD: 1.3850 – 1.3950 ▼

EUR/USD: 1.0826 – 1.0896 ▼

GBP/USD: 1.2266 – 1.2455 ▼

AUD/USD: 0.6495 – 0.6570 ▲

NZD/USD: 0.6133 – 0.6176 ▲


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