The Euro – U.S. dollar pair falls to the lowest price since May 2017 and the Pound recovers some positive momentum.

OFX Daily Market News

Posted by OFX

USD – United States Dollar

The EUR/USD pair falls to the lowest price since May 2017, with drivers coming from the European and Asian session, making the EUR/USD pair trade at 1.0855 at the time of this writing and representing a 0.17 percent fall (stronger U.S. dollar). Even though we would have expected the U.S. dollar index to touch to a new high due to the Euro’s weakness, the U.S dollar index has only reached a new high since October 2019 (while the Euro has reached a new low not seen since 2017). This clearly shows that the strength of the U.S. dollar is more about the Euro’s weakness than strong U.S. fundamentals.

Just as the North American session ended yesterday at 5 pm EST, the Japanese Yen rose from a three-week low against the dollar on Thursday as investors sought safe havens after China’s Hubei province reported a sharp jump in the number of new cases. Hubei on Thursday reported 14,840 fresh cases of the virus as of Feb. 12, up from 1,638 new cases on Tuesday, with the number of deaths in the province rising by to a new daily record of 242 and increasing the total deaths in the province to 1,310.

U.S. CPI may be a short-term driver this morning in North America for the Greenback. The expected number is 0.2 percent in the month and 2.4 percent in the year. If we see the chart of the CPI, it looks as though an uptrend has developed over the last few months, which is influencing market participants to push the Greenback higher this morning. Initial jobless claims are also being released today along with more employment weekly data in the U.S.

Key Movers

The British Pound pared gains against the U.S. dollar before recovering ground after reports that U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer, Sajid Javid, resigned from Boris Johnson’s government. The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3007 at this moment. It is hard to evaluate the Pound in the medium-term, but, right now, the Pound’s bounce is more linked to Johnson’s wish to boost the fiscal impulse more than Javid’s rules would imply. Therefore, market participants are buying more Pounds following Javid’s resignation and causing speculation that the U.K. may move towards more fiscal stimulus.

Expected Ranges

USD/CAD: 1.3224 – 1.3280 ▲

EUR/USD: 1.0850 – 1.0910 ▼

GBP/USD: 1.3000 – 1.3070 ▲

AUD/USD: 0.6720 – 0.6760 ▲

NZD/USD: 0.6438 – 0.6504 ▲


Posted by OFX

Leave a Reply