Aussie hits decade low as coronavirus fears escalate

OFX Daily Market News

Posted by OFX

AUD – Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar sank to its lowest level in over a decade on Monday, touching 0.6656 as demand for risk and the economic exposure to China sapped investor demand. Sustained fears the coronavirus will hamper the global economic recovery and dampen Chinese GDP escalated through trade on Monday as the number of confirmed cases pushed through 40,000 and the World Health Organisation issued an ominous warning.

The AUD opens this morning buying 0.6682 US cents and appears set to make a meaningful test of resistance at 0.6680. A consolidation of yesterday’s move and a series of closes below key technical supports could foster a deeper correction and shift toward 0.66. Attentions now turn to commentary from RBA governor Lowe and a string of key US data sets as markers for direction.

Key Movers

The dollar advance continued through trade on Monday as demand for safe haven assets drove direction, while US data sets provide a bullish domestic economic outlook when compared with major counterparts. Fears the coronavirus will continue to spread, hampering the global economic recovery, increased through trade on Monday as the total number of confirmed cases pushed through 40,000. The dollar index touched session highs at 98.86 as attentions turn to commentary from Ped Chair Jerome Powell, as he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.

The Euro fell to a four-month low through trade on Monday as investors contrast strong US domestic data against lacklustre eurozone metrics. Friday’s strong non-farm payroll print when compared with German industrial output show a stark contrast in economic health across the two economies. German Industrial output recorded its largest single month decline since the recession of 2009, while Italian output also printed below market expectations, amplifying calls for increased stimulus and QE measures. Having touched 1.0907 the single currency found short term support, opening this morning at 1.0911.

The Great British pound touched two and a half month lows on Monday before bouncing higher despite broad based US dollar strength. Having touched 1.2873 in early trade, the pound seemed set to compound last weeks 2.5% sell off as investors looked to correct positions ahead of a string of key data sets. While EU trade talks continue to dominate broader direction, Tuesdays GDP print will provide short to medium term guidance. Recent macroeconomic indicators have hinted at a slight upturn in economic momentum and affirmation will alleviate pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates in the first half of the year. Watch supports on moves below 1.29 with resistance on drives above 1.31 and approaching 1.32.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.6630 – 0.6730 ▼

AUD/EUR: 0.6080 – 0.6160 ▲

GBP/AUD: 1.9020 – 1.9450 ▲

AUD/NZD: 1.0380 – 1.0530 ▲

AUD/CAD: 0.6850 – 0.6930 ▲


Posted by OFX

Leave a Reply