US Dollar Will Take its Lead From Q3 Annualized GDP Today

OFX Daily Market News

Posted by OFX

USD – United States Dollar

US Dollar Market participants have a plethora of high and medium-tier data to digest before carving the Thanksgiving Turkey ahead of US Thanksgiving put a halt of volatility with US Markets closed tomorrow and again at noon on Friday.
Durable Goods Orders and quarterly Gross Domestic Product fundamentals are released. Expectations for Durable Goods for October are for -0.7%, while consensus QoQ GDP annualized is for 1.9%, and Q3 GDP was expected at 1.7%. The actual releases showed durable goods at 0.6% while GDP figures came in at 2.1% and 1.7%, respectively. Personal Consumption, weekly Continuing, and Initial Jobless claims were also released at 8:30 am, followed by Chicago Purchasing Managers numbers for November at 9:45 am. If you haven’t got your fill of market data for the US, you can belly up to the economic table and sink your teeth into US Core PCE YoY for October. Pending Home Sales, Personal Spending, Personal Income, to name a few, and just when you think you had enough save room for Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 am. US equity markets are flat from yesterday’s minimal gains, but gains none the less. We will see if Market Participants want to hold stocks that are at all-time highs or take profits to cover Black Friday deal purchases.
Phase One of the US-China trade agreement is near completion according to comments from President Trump, who is reviewing the terms to ensure the US comes out on top. Other Trump news as the impeachment inquiry moves forward with the President being invited to present his case to the impeachment panel on December 4th.

Key Movers

GBP slipped lower yesterday after a poll was released showing a tightening in the gap between Labour and the Conservatives. A further couple of polls released this morning have shown similar trends, putting the pound under additional pressure in early Europe; a poll by Kantar puts the Tories on 43% (-2) and Labour on 32% (+5).
Markets are now awaiting the release of the YouGov Multilevel Regression and Post Stratification Poll (MRP) at 10pm GMT today. The poll uses a recently developed technique that aims to give a more detailed prediction than a standard opinion poll – it was the most accurate forecaster in 2017 polls. So it could move sterling crosses overnight/tomorrow morning, with it also combining with thin market trading conditions due to Thanks Giving in the US tomorrow.

Expected Ranges

EUR/USD: 1.0995 – 1.1025 ▼

GBP/USD: 1.2826 – 1.2894 ▲

USD/CAD: 1.3260 – 1.3333 ▲

AUD/USD: 0.6771 – 0.6791 ▼

NZD/USD: 0.6771 – 0.6791 ▼

NZD/USD: 0.6417 – 0.6435 ▼

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