Risk on narrative continues to drive AUD upturn

OFX Daily Market News

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AUD – Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar upturn continued through trade on Wednesday despite Q1 GDP data indicating the Australian economy had tipped into a technical recession. Equities and growth sensitive currencies rallied for an 8th consecutive day amid sustained appetite for risk and an upswing in Chinese macroeconomic data sets, fostering further AUD gains and prompting a move to intraday highs at 0.6980. The AUD found added support in Chinese Caixin services data printed above the line of expansion and contraction for the first time since the coronavirus crisis enveloped the world’s second largest economy. Investors were encouraged by the bullish print as major economies turn to China as a marker or blueprint for economic activity amid looser social distancing restrictions. Having fallen short of a break back above the psychological 0.70 handle the AUD meet some selling pressure falling briefly below 0.69 to touch intraday lows at 0.6855 before pushing higher into the daily close and this morning’s open, where it currently buys 0.6920 US cents.

Attentions remain squarely attached to risk as the disconnect between fundamentals and direction continues. The market continues to overshoot in either direction and while we would expect a moderation in the medium term there is further scope for AUD upside in the short term as long as the risk on narrative remains in play. Australia remains well placed to bounce out of the coronavirus pandemic quickly, while China’s recovery and massive domestic fiscal stimulus measures will ensure a sustained demand for Iron ore, copper and other key Australian commodities.

Watch resistance on moves approaching 0.6980/0.70 with support in play on moves below 0.6850 and 0.68.

Key Movers

The US dollar retreated through trade on Wednesday, slipping to an 11-week low as investors continued to shed safe haven assets. Demand for risk continues to improve as markets the disconnect between fundamentals and direction continues. While macroeconomic indicators paint a dire picture, printing well below the line of contraction and expansion the trend line is beginning to point in the right direction, bolstering hopes that with ongoing easing of social distancing restrictions the global economy will rebound quicker than first anticipated.

The Euro enjoyed modest gains up six tenths of a percent to 1.1236. The shared currency has enjoyed strong gains since the EU commissions proposal for a 750 Euro recovery fund. The scheme, if agreed by all 27 member states would go beyond initial expectations and represents an incredibly important step forward for the Eurozone and EU project at a time when its very existence was being questioned. Having rallied 3% through the last 10 days the currency is well placed to take advantage of ongoing USD weakness.

The Japanese Yen was again the worst performing major unit falling another quarter percent against the Greenback as the move away from haven assets forces investors to unwind JPY positions.

Attentions today turn to the European Central Bank, wherein we expect they will announce extensions to its QE program, ramping up bond purchases as it attempts to steer the continent through the coronavirus crisis.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.6780 – 0.7020 ▲

AUD/EUR: 0.6080 – 0.6240 ▼

GBP/AUD: 1.7920 – 1.8380 ▼

AUD/NZD: 1.0680 – 1.0860 ▼

AUD/CAD: 0.9280 – 0.9420 ▼


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The Greenback seems to be capitulating after many days of weakness. It seems to be within attractive levels as we await the ECB announcement tomorrow.

OFX Daily Market News

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USD – United States Dollar

The U.S. dollar falls versus all G10 currencies, except versus the Japanese Yen. The U.S. dollar index has fallen 0.42 percent, and the Euro has increased 0.61 percent versus the U.S. dollar in a move that seems to be more of a capitulation and shows oversold levels for the U.S. dollar in the short-term. This morning, jobless claims continued their downtrend, a mildly encouraging signal. Continuing claims, a measure of ongoing unemployment reported with a one-week lag, dropped to 21.1 million from 24.9 million the prior week. The ADP research institute said the U.S. lost 2.76 million jobs in May.

Despite protests in the U.S., equity markets continue to rally, which has put pressure on the Greenback. The appetite for risk is shown in the FX markets through the fall of the US dollar. Emerging market currencies have benefited the most, especially the Indonesian Rupiah and Mexican Peso.

Key Movers

The Loonie has kept its gains versus the US dollar after the BoC kept its rate at 0.25 percent. The BoC said that market conditions have improved, and the economy appears to be avoiding worst-case scenarios. However, the BoC’s expectation of a “protracted and uneven” recovery and “heavily clouded” outlook means asset purchases, market support, and cooperation with fiscal authorities will continue well into 2021, at a minimum. From an economic standpoint, the BoC statement projects a 10-20 percent drop in the economy for the second quarter. Some key technical levels in the USD/CAD pair are 1.3855, 1.3733, and 1.3609 as resistance levels and 1.3481, 1.3462, and 1.3439 as support levels.

Surveys show economic improvement in May in China and Europe. Economic data from the developed world still looks grim, but hopes that the global economy has bottomed is pushing risky currencies higher. European purchasing manager indices released earlier confirmed a bounce from April’s lows and China’s Caixin services PMI signaled growth.

Australia’s economy confirmed it had fallen into recession for the first time in 30 years with a second straight contraction in the first quarter.

Crude oil hit its highest price in three months as speculation strengthened that OPEC and other major exporters will extend their current deal on output cuts for another three months. However, the rally stopped this morning and crude oil is trading flat as there was doubt at the OPEC about cheating by some nations on their output cuts deal.

Expected Ranges

USD/CAD: 1.3464 – 1.3600 ▲

EUR/USD: 1.1161 – 1.1250 ▼

GBP/USD: 1.2580 – 1.2600 ▼

AUD/USD: 0.6871 – 0.6940 ▼

NZD/USD: 0.6375 – 0.6435 ▼


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Australian dollar hones in on 0.70 US cents as risk on narrative continues

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AUD – Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar continued its upward march through trade on Tuesday, extending Monday’s move and pushing toward 0.69 US cents. Investors continue to ignore the immediate slew of negative headlines and dire macroeconomic indicators, instead backing a swift rebound across the global economy through H2. The risk on narrative remains in full swing as equity markets remain well bid and central banks control price swings among the rates market. The AUD was again the top performer and has in fact enjoyed a stellar rebound since touching 0.5510 in mid-March. The Australian dollar has recouped all losses suffered in the wake of the coronavirus crash and looks set to outstrip major counterparts through June, eyeing a move toward 0.70 US cents. While there are still hazards that could force a shift in the current risk on storyline there is little in the way of technical resistance at the current levels. Having touched intraday highs at 0.6899 the AUD is poised to push through 0.6915/30 and extend toward the psychological 0.70 handle. With the RBA offering little in the may of resistance Tuesday, maintaining its current QE policy setting and giving little indication of a shift in interest rates our attentions turn to Q1 GDP data and US preliminary non-farm payroll numbers. Unless the aforementioned datasets completely miss the mark we would expect a largely muted reaction with the risk narrative controlling broader moves.

Key Movers

The US Dollar correction continued through trade on Tuesday outstripped only by the JPY as the worst performing currency among major counterparts. Having touched three month high just two weeks ago the USD dollar index has suffered a swift and sharp downturn, correcting 3% through the last fortnight with ample scope for further declines. The dollar has outperformed for an extended period and there has long been a suggestion a broader correction was needed; the question was around timing. If the current shift is the beginnings of a broader USD repositioning there is a real possibility of extended downside.

The Euro and GBP both enjoyed modest gains up three and four tenths of a percent as Brexit negotiations continue and Britain appears to be beginning to compromise in order to avoid a hard Brexit come the end of the year.

Attentions today turn to a slew of European services data as a key marker as to the scale of recovery since lockdown measures were enforced, while preliminary US non-farm payroll numbers dominate the US ticket. With the labour market in ruins, the coronavirus pandemic continuing to spread and social upheaval spreading across the country, hope the US will swiftly bounce back are beginning to dwindle.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.6680 – 0.7020 ▲

AUD/EUR: 0.5980 – 0.6230 ▲

GBP/AUD: 1.7980 – 1.8450 ▼

AUD/NZD: 1.0750 – 1.0920 ▲

AUD/CAD: 0.9180 – 0.9380 ▲


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The Greenback's recent weakness is driven by building confidence that the global economy has made it through the worst of Covid-19.

OFX Daily Market News

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USD – United States Dollar

FX market participants got distracted by news about Floyd’s death in the U.S. and again with the never-ending US and China spat. Increasing risk appetite is moving FX markets and has pushed the Greenback lower since May 26th. Aggressive Fed policy easing remains a weight on the Greenback. The USD’s recent weakness seems to be driven by building confidence that the global economy has made it through the worst of Covid-19.

The most critical US dollar counterpart, the Euro, rose for the sixth consecutive day by 0.47 percent to 1.1188 at the time of this writing. The US economy is slowly coming back to life as restrictions on businesses loosen in all 50 states.

The Greenback is currently lower versus all of its G-10 peers except the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. The Aussie dollar is the leader for the second day in a row and it has become overbought.

Key Movers

Last night, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision was as expected, with rates held at the current level of 0.25 percent. The RBA noted that although the worst may be behind us, the real economic impact may not be felt for some time, with the unemployment rate expected to rise further, perhaps keeping the door open for rate cuts further down the road. The AUD/USD pair has been charging higher since the March 19th low and before the RBA release. It has gained about 15 percent since the March 19th low.

The Euro increases as higher Italian bond prices continue and while there is positive momentum ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting. The gains also came amid reports that Germany’s Angela Merkel may provide a second stimulus package of as much as 100 billion Euros as part of the European Commission’s plan to help the EU. The recovery package is substantial in its reach, particularly for the more vulnerable southern European member states. The EUR/USD pair has a critical resistance level at around 1.1239 from December 31st. It trades at 1.1188 at the time of this writing.

The GBP/USD pair has risen by 0.53 percent to 1.2558, buoyed by a report that the U.K. may be willing to compromise with the European Union in trade negotiations.

Expected Ranges

USD/CAD: 1.3484 – 1.3617 ▲

EUR/USD: 1.1140 – 1.1200 ▼

GBP/USD: 1.2480 – 1.2576 ▼

AUD/USD: 0.6803 – 0.6900 ▼

NZD/USD: 0.6323 – 0.6367 ▲


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Australian dollar outperforms as risk on narrative drives currency to 6-month highs

OFX Daily Market News

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AUD – Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar surged through trade on Monday, extending last weeks gains amid broad based US weakness. Despite increasing US/China trade tensions, grim macroeconomic data sets and violent protests in the US investors overwhelmingly adopted a risk on tone, buoyed by the prospect of an economic rebound as the global economy begins to re-open. Commodity and risk sensitive currencies rallied strongly as the US dollar decline continued. The Aussie dollar pushed through 0.67 and 0.6750 before breaching 0.68 for the first time since January. Having rallied 2.6% since the domestic close on Monday the AUD has outperformed all major counterparts. While the risk on narrative has helped fuel demand for the growth sensitive currency, an upturn in commodity prices, led by iron ore has helped underpin the move. Iron Ore pushed through $100 a tonne on Friday as increasing demand and issues with supply forced prices sharply higher.

Attentions remain squarely affixed to the broader risk on storyline with sustained improvements in equities and risk demand driving sustained AUD upside. That said, there are downside risks still in play. The global outlook is far from certain and as trade tensions increase and COVID-19 continues its spread around the world a shift in the risk on mood could prompt a swift reversal in AUD fortunes through the medium term.

Watch the RBA policy announcement and rate statement today for more monetary policy guidance. We expect they will maintain the current policy setting.

Key Movers

The US dollar downturn continued through trade on Monday as the world’s base currency gave up ground against most major counterparts. Grim macroeconomic data and escalating social upheaval amid a broader global risk on move forced investors away from the USD, promoting gains for the CAD, GBP, EUR, JPY, AUD and NZD. Despite the overwhelming flood of negative headlines throughout the weekend markets have persisted with the risk on drive, choosing to ignore the current uncertainty and instead focus on expectations for recovery through the second half of 2020.

The Euro continued its upturn as the prospect of a 750 billion Euro recovery fund fueled a run through 1.11. The combined unit had come under increasing pressure prior to last weeks announcement as expectations the common currency and trade union would not be able to withstand the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic amid growing concerns surrounding joint debt obligations weighed on investors. The EU’s plan surpassed market expectations and doused calls the common area should break up.

Attentions turn to the ECB this week, wherein policy setters are expected to increase the current QE program by 500 billion Euro, while renewed Brexit negotiations weigh on any GBP upturn.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.6530 – 0.6880 ▲

AUD/EUR: 0.5980 – 0.6150 ▲

GBP/AUD: 1.8120 – 1.8580 ▼

AUD/NZD: 1.0720 – 1.0880 ▲

AUD/CAD: 0.9150 – 0.9280 ▲


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AUD sees a rise following President Trump’s speech

OFX Daily Market News

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AUD – Australian Dollar

The Aussie dollar rose against the USD last trading session to open at 0.6669 gaining some traction after a speech by President Trump about China early Saturday morning. The US President has stated that the United States will move to sanction Chinese officials over what he referred to as the ‘smothering’ of Hong Kong, but did not make any mention of the trade deal between the two countries.

In terms of macroeconomic news, the Cash Rate announcement by the RBA is scheduled to be released Tuesday afternoon. Expected to stay at 0.25%, the rate decision is usually priced into the market, but it often overshadowed by the RBA Rate Statement which focusses on the future.

Key Movers

Canadian GDP dropped 7.2% in March according to data released by Statistics Canada on Friday night, causing the CAD to drop almost 50 points against the USD. Owing to the COVID-19 pandemic declared by the WHO on March 11, we are expected to see further decline as Statistics Canada’s preliminary information indicates an 11% decline for the month of April.

Chinese Manufacturing PMI data released Sunday midday saw a figure of 50.6 come back indicating industry expansion, making the PMI positive for the third month in a row. It is a leading indicator of economic health, as businesses react quickly to market conditions and purchasing managers hold a relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

Conversely, the US will release their ISM Manufacturing PMI data midnight on Monday. Forecast rates for this are coming back at 43.5 indicating contraction.

Expected Ranges

AUD/CAD: 0.9105 – 0.9285 ▲

AUD/EUR: 0.5905 – 0.6100 ▲

GBP/AUD: 1.8180 – 1.8865 ▼

AUD/NZD: 1.0680 – 1.0860 ▲

AUD/USD: 0.6570 – 0.6785 ▲


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Risk-on backdrop continues to drive broader AUD upturn

OFX Daily Market News

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AUD – Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar crept higher through trade on Thursday, buoyed by a sustained risk-on backdrop and broad US dollar weakness. The rally across equity markets continued as the global economy continues to respond positively to increased activity and mobility as lockdown measures ease. The AUD found further support after the Peoples Bank of China arrested the Yuan’s collapse, fixing the currency near record lows. Increased trade tensions have forced investors to dump the offshore CNY on speculation Beijing would let the currency weaken in a bid to sure up exports amid mounting tariffs. With Chinese state-run banks selling USD through the later half of the Australasian session the Yuan stabilised helping cap AUD downside in the short-term. Having touched intraday day lows at 0.6587 the AUD pushed through resistance at 0.6630 to touch 0.6667, before edging lower into this morning’s open.

The Australian dollar remains vulnerable to the ongoing uncertainties surrounding trade and the global economic recovery with topside gains increasingly hard won. However, having broken resistance at 0.66 and 0.6630 there is scope for further short-term upside. If optimism continues to foster sustained demand for equities, the AUD’s close correlation with equity markets could prompt a run through 0.67.

Key Movers

Safe havens were again the days big losers as the risk-on backdrop prompted investors to chase higher yields. The USD index fell half a percent, slipping below its 100-day moving average and marking a new two month low. Having broken key supports this week, sustained optimism could add further downward pressure as focus begins to shift to underlying macroeconomic performance and monetary policy.

The euro consolidated its break above 1.10, touching two-month highs as investors’ confidence that EU leaders will introduce extensive fiscal support in the coming months improved. This weeks 750billion euro proposal has helped narrow bond yield spreads for Italian and Spanish bonds as markets prepare for extensive stimulus programs through H2. While the current proposal is yet to be approved by all 27 EU countries, the current plan at least offers a starting point for joint debt negotiations.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.6480 – 0.6680 ▲

AUD/EUR: 0.5930 – 0.6050 ▼

GBP/AUD: 1.8450 – 1.8930 ▲

AUD/NZD: 1.0620 – 1.0750 ▼

AUD/CAD: 0.9050 – 0.9180 ▲


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The Greenback falls after weak employment, housing, and growth numbers.

OFX Daily Market News

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USD – United States Dollar

The US dollar has had a mixed start today against G10 majors after China passed a National Security Law for Hong Kong. However, at the time of this writing, the US dollar is only beating the Canadian dollar by 0.1 percent. As the economy re-opens, initial jobless claims are beginning to fall faster than the prior weeks. Initial jobless claims dropped to 2.12 million for the week of May 23rd versus the expected 2.1 million (note that the “actual” being less than the “forecast” is usually good for the US dollar). There are doubts that there is more hiring, but jobless claims might not include the people claiming the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, as these individuals are not eligible for regular or extended unemployment benefits.

Additional economic data releases include the second revision of US GDP, which showed that the economy is now expected to contract at an annualized -5 percent in the January – March period versus the expected number of -4.8 percent. Also, Durable Goods Orders contracted 17.2 percent during April and Core Orders dropped 7.4 percent; both prints surpassed the previous forecasts. Finally, the U.S. pending home sales index fell by the most on record since 2001. This is an index of contract signings for purchases of previously owned US homes, which collapsed to a record low in April as Covid-19 lockdowns decreased prospective buyers.

Covid-19 has continued to damage the U.S. economy in recent weeks with business closures along with the US reaching the horrible milestone of 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus, the highest number in the world. However, Anthony Fauci said there’s a “good chance” a vaccine may be deployable by November or December.

Key Movers

The Euro holds above the 1.1000 handle against the Greenback after poor economic data in the US and despite US congress voting to authorize sanctions against Chinese officials for human rights abuses against Muslim minorities on Wednesday. US congress and the White House increased pressure on the government in Beijing amid rising tensions between US and China.

The RBA’s chief in Australia said the economy is doing better than it had initially thought, but it warned against withdrawing stimulus prematurely.

In general, higher inflation poses a risk to G10 economies as stimulus continues to come at full force and policy rates flirt with negative levels. For example, in the US, deflationary forces will dominate as the impact of Covid-19 continues in the short-term. Also, the ECB is concerned that lingering weakness in demand could create downside risks to inflation over the next few years.

Expected Ranges

USD/CAD: 1.3728 – 1.3820 ▼

EUR/USD: 1.0961 – 1.1069 ▼

GBP/USD: 1.2186 – 1.2363 ▼

AUD/USD: 0.6574 – 0.6679 ▼

NZD/USD: 0.6159 – 0.6229 ▼


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Chinese trade tensions know AUD off multi-month highs

OFX Daily Market News

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AUD – Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar fell through trade on Wednesday, slipping off multi-month highs at 0.6680 amid increasing Chinese trade uncertainty. Having pushed back through 0.6650 for the first time since March’s unprecedented price action the AUD plunged lower, loosing over a cent in overnight trade, falling through 0.66 to touch 0.6570. Reports China will begin promoting the use of domestic coal reserves and tightening import rules on shipments coming in from Australia forced investors to correct the recent upturn, taking profit at 0.6680. China’s National Development and Reform Commission have reportedly instructed five of China’s largest state-owned utilities companies to stop buying Australian coal, a devastating hit to one our key exports. The announcement follows restrictions already placed on meat and barley exports and adds further uncertainty as to the state of our most valuable trading relationship.

Increasing trade tensions are weighing on AUD upside as optimism across global markets fuels demand for risk. Having broken through resistance at 0.6570 and 0.6620 there is scope for a sustained upturn assuming tensions with China do not continue to escalate.  Attentions today remain with the ongoing developments in trade relations and broader risk sentiment. Watch support at 0.6530 and resistance on moves approaching 0.67.

Key Movers

The Euro rallied through trade on Wednesday, buoyed by reports the EU commission has proposed a revised 750billion Euro recovery fund. In its current format the recovery fund would make up to 500billion Euro available in grants and 250 billion available in loans, limiting joint debt obligations ins a bid to appease northern states opposed to propping up their embattled southern partners. Spain and Italy are said to be the big benefactors under the current scheme. Both countries have been devastated by the impacts of COVID 19 and would be due 80 billion in grants and further loan assistance. The Euro rallied through 1.10 to touch 1.1030 before edging back toward 1.0990/1.10. The proposed plan is far from a done deal with Austria, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands still opposed to such an extensive grant program. EU leaders from the so called frugal four hinted the current plan was unacceptable, but acknowledge it proffered a promising starting point for further negotiations. EU leaders next meet on June 19. Despite the short term uptick the Euro remains under mounting pressure as fiscal support lags that of other major economies. ECB president Christine Lagarde lamented the pace of current negotiations, claiming fiscal support was crucial in propping up the EU economy. With the ECB expecting the European economy to fall as much as 12% through 2020, joint debt and fiscal support is critical.

The JPY and CHF both fell as investors look past trade tensions as hopes of a quick rebound in economic activity continue to drive direction. With initial indicators suggesting a positive uptick in activity across major economies attentions remain affixed to any hint a second wave of infections will derail a H2 recovery, while increasing trade uncertainties between the US and China amid renewed concerns over Hong Kong’s proposed security laws have dampened the risk rally, softening the impact on haven currencies. The offshore Yuan fell further against the USD edging ever nearer 7.20 as the impacts of tariffs and trade weigh on the currency.

The Great British Pound retreated through Wednesday as the prospect of negative interest rates and declining optimism a Brexit deal will be reached before the end of the year weighed on the currency. Having fallen back below 1.23 there is little to suggest Sterling will enjoy any long-term upturn in the sort or medium term. Covid19 lockdowns are expected to remain in place for some time yet as the UK still struggles to grapple with the devastating impacts of this unprecedented health pandemic.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.6480 – 0.6680 ▼

AUD/EUR: 0.5950 – 0.6050 ▼

GBP/AUD: 1.8380 – 1.8680 ▲

AUD/NZD: 1.0620 – 1.0780 ▼

AUD/CAD: 0.9020 – 0.9180 ▼


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The Greenback gets a boost as the U.S. government says Hong Kong is no longer politically autonomous from China.

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USD – United States Dollar

The U.S. dollar index bounces by around 0.18 percent and the U.S. dollar increases by 0.05 percent versus the Euro as the U.S. says that Hong Kong is no longer politically autonomous from China. This move could have important consequences on the special trading status of the former British colony with the U.S.; Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said that, “…no reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China, given facts on the ground.” This situation is increasing the tension that has weighed down the Aussie dollar, Kiwi dollar, and Canadian dollar all week. The headlines in Hong Kong and Taiwan are beginning to positively affect the U.S. dollar, so it might prevail with its safe haven status.

Tomorrow, jobless claims should continue to trend down, but the pace of declines has been slow. There are some signs of small businesses rehiring as the economy gradually reopens.

Key Movers

European Union officials boosted the Euro against the U.S. dollar, but it was short lived. They are proposing a €725-billion Covid-19 relief fund, which is a fiscal stimulus package composed of loans and grants (and larger than the French-German proposal). There is still a lot of work ahead, as the plan needs the unanimous agreement of all 27 EU members. So far, Denmark, Sweden, Austria and the Netherlands don’t agree with the plan. ECB President Christine Lagarde previously warned that the EU Gross Domestic Product would fall by about 8 to 12 percent in 2020. If this plan were implemented, this fund would be massive and not only support the European recovery, but it would also demonstrate solidarity. This plan is called, “Next Generation EU,” and it is very ambitious because it plans to borrow €750bn from the markets with plans to repay within a three-decade window from 2028 to 2058 through the EU budget. The EU would pay it back by raising its own resources through taxing large corporations, emission trading schemes, and a carbon border adjustment mechanism.

Expected Ranges

USD/CAD: 1.3737 – 1.3851 ▲

EUR/USD: 1.0933 – 1.1000 ▼

GBP/USD: 1.2186 – 1.2295 ▼

AUD/USD: 0.6508 – 0.6614 ▼

NZD/USD: 0.6077 – 0.6192 ▼


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